Drawdown recovery calculator
How much you need to gain to get back to your peak after a drawdown — and how many trades that takes at your risk, R and win rate.
Why losses and gains are not symmetrical
A drawdown is measured from the peak, but the recovery has to be earned on the smaller balance that is left. Lose 20% of $10,000 and you have $8,000; getting back to $10,000 means making $2,000 on $8,000 — a 25% gain. The formula is:
gain needed = drawdown ÷ (1 − drawdown)
Small drawdowns need only a little more than they lost; large ones need far more, which is why limiting the depth of a drawdown matters more than speeding up the recovery. More on measuring it in maximum drawdown.
| Drawdown | Balance left from $10,000 | Gain needed |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | $9,500 | 5.26% |
| 10% | $9,000 | 11.11% |
| 15% | $8,500 | 17.65% |
| 20% | $8,000 | 25.00% |
| 25% | $7,500 | 33.33% |
| 30% | $7,000 | 42.86% |
| 40% | $6,000 | 66.67% |
| 50% | $5,000 | 100.00% |
How many winning trades it takes
If every trade risks the same percentage of the current balance and every win pays R times that risk, each win multiplies the balance by (1 + R × risk). The number of winning trades in a row needed to recover is:
wins = ln(1 ÷ (1 − drawdown)) ÷ ln(1 + R × risk)
Example: a 10% drawdown, 1% risk per trade, wins of 2R. ln(1 ÷ 0.9) = 0.1054 and ln(1.02) = 0.0198, so 0.1054 ÷ 0.0198 = 5.3 — six wins in a row. After a 20% drawdown at the same settings it is ln(1.25) ÷ ln(1.02) = 11.3, so twelve.
Expected trades at your win rate
Real trading mixes wins and losses. With win rate p, the average growth of the balance per trade, in logarithms, is g = p × ln(1 + R × risk) + (1 − p) × ln(1 − risk), and the expected number of trades to recover is ln(1 ÷ (1 − drawdown)) ÷ g.
With a 45% win rate, 2R wins and 1% risk: g = 0.45 × 0.0198 + 0.55 × (−0.01005) = 0.00338, so a 10% drawdown takes about 0.1054 ÷ 0.00338 = 31 trades on average and a 20% drawdown about 66. With a 30% win rate at the same R, g is negative and the calculator says so: on average these numbers do not recover the drawdown at all. A strategy whose expectancy is only just above zero in R can still have a negative g, because compounding weighs a loss slightly more than a win of the same percentage. These are averages; real sequences of wins and losses make the path longer for some traders and shorter for others.
What the numbers mean for prop firm accounts
Prop firm challenges usually stop the account at a fixed maximum loss, often 10% (verify your firm's rules), and many add a daily limit. There the recovery maths matters less than staying away from the limit: at 1% risk, a run of five losses — common at a 45% win rate over a hundred trades — uses about half of a 10% allowance. Track your drawdown against the limit with a prop firm journal, and check how your win rate and R combine with the risk-reward calculator.
Frequently asked questions
Why does a 50% drawdown need a 100% gain?
Because the recovery starts from half the balance: $10,000 down 50% is $5,000, and $5,000 has to double to get back to $10,000.
Should I raise my risk to recover faster?
Higher risk shortens the recovery only if the trades work; it also deepens the drawdown if they do not. Many traders reduce risk during a drawdown instead. It is a personal decision, not a rule.
Does the calculator include commissions?
No. It works with percentages of the balance and R multiples. Costs reduce your real average R, so enter the net average win from your own history — see win rate vs risk-reward.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. The calculator runs entirely in your browser.